Plug-in 2008 starts tomorrow and as the SJ Mercury reports, supporters are bullish on the prospects
Asked whether plug-in hybrids, also known as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, are inevitable as production vehicles, Mark Duvall of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in Palo Alto answered with cautious optimism that sounded more optimistic than guarded.
"I would never say 100 percent until I can kick the tires myself, but I'm as optimistic as I've even been in 15 or so years with this subject," Duvall said.
QUEST provides a wonderful short on plug-ins, including details on the technology and movers, focusing on local visionary and head of CalCars, Felix Kramer:
T. Boone Pickens and
grease buses not withstanding, the momentum around plug-ins and electrics looks unstoppable. More leaders such as Intel's ex-chief
Andy Grove pushing for them (though his plug for coal makes clear that climate is not part of his thinking). He's also talking up
retrofits for conventional cars like the
Poulsen Hybrid. It's all a question of how soon.
Demand for small cars and the
Prius in particular is straining the automakers current ability to manufacture more efficient vehicles quickly. Japanese car makers at least are looking to
respond aggressively (and has already begun
pulling back on its trucks and SUV production).
From now through 2010 and beyond, they are pushing ahead with plans for hybrids, electric cars, cleaner diesels, and even, further down the road, fuel-cell vehicles (see "Japan's Green Drive"). The days when auto executives mocked the Prius as a loss-making fad seem long past. "Without focusing on measures to address global warming and energy issues, there can be no future for our auto business," Katsuaki Watanabe, Toyota's president, said at an environmental forum in Tokyo on June 11.
In the short term, that means many more hybrids. By the early 2010s, Toyota aims to more than double hybrid sales, to 1 million a year, far more than all other automakers' combined hybrid sales so far.
To meet its targets, Toyota will roll out several new models. Next year, Toyota is expected to add two new cars that it will sell only as hybrids, one badged as a Toyota, the other a Lexus. A new version of the Prius, which promises to be lighter and more fuel-efficient than the current generation, should also appear in 2009, and a plug-in version, which like the Volt will use lithium-ion batteries, is due to arrive a year later. By 2010, Toyota is also believed to be planning two more dedicated hybrid models, including a new hybrid minivan.
In the mean time Toyota has resorted to feel good tweaks like
solar panels on the cars.
And of course, SUV values are dropping.
As gasoline prices have soared this year, SUV values have plummeted - by 7 percent to 8 percent in most cases, according to the Kelley Blue Book car price service - while the prices of used small cars are holding strong or increasing, with some models like the Toyota Prius hybrid unavailable without long waits.
Though while increasingly even
CEOs are acknowledging that gas prices are not expected to come down meaningfully at any point, Kelley Blue Book is suggesting
people wait before trading in the SUV's. Not sure that's wise - gas prices may dip slightly in the near term but basically they are on a permanent upward track. That said, the price of hybrids and small cars may drop as car makers catch up.