Water: preparing for worst

California residents rely on water from multiple sources but primarily local aquifers and central distribution of Sierra Mountain snow melt. About 60% is from the Sierras.

Looks like the distribution from the Sierras is going to take a big hit.

The state could cut as much as 85 percent of the water it delivers to local suppliers, the second-lowest allocation estimate in modern California history, officials said Thursday.

The water allocation estimate is the first for 2009 by the state Department of Water Resources, which plans to update its figures each month through spring. Water delivery could be increased if the Golden State's two-year drought ends with a wet winter in the coming months.

The decision could have an impact on agencies all over California that receive some of their supply from the state. Those agencies serve 25 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland. In the Bay Area, five water agencies would be affected.

While the estimate paints a grim picture that could force local water agencies to ration or farmers to let their fields sit idle, it's close to a worst-case scenario, said Lester Snow, director of the state water agency.

A lot of factors are at work but one is global warming which is reducing the snow pack and changing precipitation patterns.

More of this is certain to come.

The future is now: peak oil & thin-film

For many years "peak oil" advocates have been arguing that the beginning of the decline in oil production and/or having demand surpass production would usher in a tremendous jarring change in the world economy. Climate activists, like myself, on the other hand have generally taken the perspective that what we need to do to solve climate will also solve peak oil, so focusing on peak oil was less significant. However, it appears that both climate and peak oil are converging at terrific speed - both with enormous ramifications.

The IEA is reporting a major drop in oil production.

World will struggle to meet oil demand
Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.

The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term de­mand. The effort will become even more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.

The economic decline is going to mask some of this due to a decline in consumption but this drop off, if sustained, has will drive huge economic impacts. Energy ROI will decline, cost of production will rise and cost feedback loops plus supply disruptions will kick in for price spikes. The urgency for moving off of fossil fuels has become all the more urgent (coal is also peaking). No amount of drilling or unconventional supplies can solve this - they will only fuel the problem. The "upside" to peak oil is that it can drive the economic argument for renewables and efficiency (if we avoid the ditches like coal to fuels, tar sands and other unconventional dead-ends).

The good news is the accelerating new technologies with, for example, the first residential thin-film solar installations going up soon.

Solar City, the Foster City solar-system installer, inked a deal this morning with First Solar of Arizona to use that company's thin-film panels on homes for the first time.

The five-year contract calls for First Solar to supply 100 megawatts of its thin-film solar modules to Solar City. In California, one megawatt typically powers 700 homes.

While thin-film provides lower yield, it is easier to install providing likely lower costs and faster deployment. We just need our cars to go electric...

High-speed rail on the ballot

KQED Video

The San Jose Mercury encourages a YES vote on Proposition 1A for this remarkably efficient transportation alternative.

Americans who visit Japan or Europe and hop a bullet train get a stunning reminder of how far behind much of the industrialized world we are in swift, clean, efficient transportation. Californians can change that by approving Proposition 1A, a bond to begin construction of a high-speed rail system that would whisk passengers from Los Angeles to the Bay Area through downtown San Jose in a mere 21/2 hours. It will be a catalyst for the economic growth of California and this region over the next 100 years.

The proposal, years in the making, has been thoroughly vetted in public debate, particularly over the route. The High Speed Rail Authority made the right choices, coming up with a practical and visionary plan that will place San Jose and Silicon Valley at the heart of the Bay Area's economy. We recommend it.

There is no way that California can expand highways and airports in a way to address the state's growth. And it will cut emissions and stimulate the economy. It's a huge win.

Message for our New President

A group of 40 elected officials, as part of Climate Communities, drafted a Climate Action Blueprint for the New President and the 111th Congress. It's quite good! It creates a nonpartisan approach to addressing our next steps regarding climate change and developing incentives and grant funding for related projects.

Many elected officials do not know about the opportunity to endorse this message; it is done as individuals, so does not need to go to the councils or boards. 

There are many things that we might add to this list, but this is an excellent start for the new president - and a team from Climate Communities plans to meet with the transition team in December to push for its adoption.

Jill

Frontline: Best use of Talking Heads music ever

Showing tonight but also online.

Hat-tip ClimateProgress

Closed loop 'fossil' fuel or sequestration?

Santa Barbara based Carbon Sciences claims to have a scalable, non-energy intensive process to transform CO2 and water into carbon fuel or into solid calcium carbonate.

Of the fuel process they state:

Some of the known approaches for CO2 to fuel transformation include (1) direct photolysis which uses intense light energy to break off the oxygen atoms in CO2, and (2) chemically reacting carbon dioxide gas (CO2) with hydrogen gas (H2) to create methane or methanol. Both of these conventional engineering approaches require immense energy due to high pressure and high temperature chemical processes. For certain applications such as military and space, the high cost of these technologies may be justifiable. However, we do not believe these approaches will be economically viable in creating transportation fuels for global consumption.

By innovating at the intersection of chemical engineering and bio-engineering, we have discovered a low energy and highly scalable process to transform large quantities of CO2 into gaseous and liquid fuels using organic biocatalysts. The key to our CO2-to-Fuel approach lies in a proprietary multi-step biocatalytic process. Instead of using expensive inorganic catalysts, such as zinc, gold or zeolite, with traditional high energy catalytic chemical processes, our process uses inexpensive, renewable biomolecules to catalyze certain chemical reactions required to transform CO2 into basic hydrocarbon building blocks. Of greatest significance, our process occurs at low temperature and low pressure, thereby requiring far less energy than other approaches.

If truly scalable it could be significant, providing a (near) closed loop "fossil fuel". In theory we could burn coal for example and turn it into a vehicle fuel. The problem of course is that capturing CO2 from millions of mobile sources is very difficult but it could be an important transitional phase as a 2 for 1 carbon reduction. Alternately, the fuel could be burned by an electrical plant and from its CO2 new fuel is created for the same plant. And if the transformation is powered by renewable fuel (and vehicles are electric) this is extremely attractive.

Furthermore, Carbon Sciences claims to have a process which takes CO2 and other minerals as input and outputs calcium carbonate.

Like the first process, this is a devils in the details discussion but here too the potential benefits are considerable. With China building 2-31-2 coal plants a monthweek, it is urgent to find a means to sequester carbon. Most discussions have circled around injecting it in the ground or ocean. Injecting it deep underground as a gas will likely result in leakage, which is catastrophic even in small quantities. Injecting it in the ocean, even frozen has consequences not just with leakage but on ocean acidity - and in turn all life in the ocean. These are not credible options any time soon. But as a solid, sequestration- and even reuse - becomes credible.

Interestingly, just days ago I spoke with a former senior scientist for Toyota who was instrumental in the creation of the Prius now working on a CO2 to solid carbon sequestration process with a new firm called Full Circle. He claims the CO2 can be sequestered this way for 10,000 years. It seems more than one firm has their eye on that opportunity.

More on Carbon Sciences at TriplePundit.

Aptera wins award

One of my favorites wins the Popular Mechanics award.

Impact of financial crisis on energy projects

What will the economic crisis and financial bailout mean for the future of energy projects? Do certain industries have more to lose? How will cleantech projects, oil and gas development, and carbon capture-and-storage research fare as a result of the economic downturn? During today's OnPoint, Michael Schewel, a partner at law firm McGuireWoods and an energy project financing expert, gives his take on the effects of the financial downturn on investments in the energy sector.

Schewel argues that - not surprisingly - whether or not given projects are impacted depend on the kind of financing used. Debt financing especially is likely to be negatively impacted in the near term. Though not discussed, this could include even local financing for distributed renewables like power purchase agreements. Longer term of course there is reason for continued optimism. Oil may have declined due to reduced demand in the economic decline, but no one believes peak oil has gone away. Even at $80 a barrel, oil is still at historic highs. Schewel's discussion of climate legislation however, only looks at the costs, not the economic benefits which are likely substantial.

Luckily venture capital has continued to flow, though this too may be impacted in the near-term as VC source funds start showing a hit.

GBX reopens, helps with green home in S. SF

The wonderful Green Building Exchange moved from Redwood City to South San Francisco and its owner pitched in to create a model green renovation in South San Francisco.

"We're trying to get somebody to start and pick something to do," said Michael Schaeffer, owner of Green Building Exchange, which recently moved to 1 Chestnut Ave. in South San Francisco. "There's so many different ways to tackle it."

This is important because while brand new green buildings are valuable, the biggest opportunity is in retrofitting existing homes.

Workers from Heavenly Greens install synthetic grass in the backyard of a home in South San Francisco, Calif., Saturday, October 4, 2008. Volunteers helped convert a three bedroom home into a green home by installing energy-efficient products, including a tankless hot water heater, synthetic grass yard and solar panels.

Burlingame to do climate action plan

Burlingame to do emissions inventory and climate action plan. From the press release:

The Burlingame City Council approved several major initiatives on October 6 that represent a giant "green" leap forward for the city. The council unanimously authorized completion of a community-wide greenhouse gas inventory and creation of a Climate Action Plan that is designed to identify high-priority programs and policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the council eliminated the city's fee for solar permits.

The city has already signed the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement, formed a Green Ribbon Task Force and created a "Sustainable Burlingame" section on the city's Web site at www.burlingame.org. An evaluation of city shuttle services is saving the city $40,000 per year. Burlingame is in the process of completing a baseline inventory of greenhouse gas emissions for city operations.

Consultant Kathleen Gallagher will work with the Green Ribbon Task Force to complete the city's Climate Action Plan. In doing so, Burlingame joins several other nearby cities such as Menlo Park, San Mateo, Hillsborough and Palo Alto that are working to meet greenhouse gas reductions goals as mandated by AB 32, California's Global Warming Solutions Act that requires the state to reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

Thus far Burlingame's steps have been very minor incremental steps such as modest public education and now the solar fee reduction. Those are good things but the hope is that the city will be more substantive going forward.

San Jose Green Building standards

A vital leap forward in San Jose's Green Vision, the city committed to green building standards($ub reqd) this week.

Buildings under 25,000 square feet will face basic standards outlined by the U.S. Green Building Council's Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) program. Buildings larger than 25,000 square feet will have to meet the LEED silver standards.

Under the new policy for private development, housing developments with 10 units or more will need to achieve either
50 points on Build It Green's "GreenPoint Rated" scale or LEED certification. High-rise residential buildings (those over
75 feet) will need to achieve LEED certification. For smaller projects, the proposed policy implements a green building
checklist meant to familiarize the development community with green building practices.

The Home Builders Association of Northern California supported the plan and called its goals reasonable.

Still forthcoming will be the ordinances to put this into effect. More on this and Tesla committing to build in San Jose in the Mercury News.

A Car with No Engine

At the Paris Motor Show, Green Inc. is impressed by the Venturi Volage, which has:

no engine, mechanical gearbox, clutch, driveshaft, universal joint, or traditional suspension components.

It kind of sounds like a salad with no vegetables. But take a closer look:

the 295-horsepower Volage will hit 160 m.p.h. and travel up to 200 miles without burning gasoline.

State to improve land-use planning

Governor Schwarzenegger on September 30th signed into law SB375 which incentivizes "infill" (development within urban areas rather than 'green fields') and "transit-oriented development" (more housing and amenities in transit corridors such as train stations).

The theory behind SB 375 involves reducing vehicle miles by boosting infill development and promoting a sustainable communities strategy. Builders could see relaxed environmental reviews if projects meet certain targets while communities will get an extra three years to update required housing plans. State transportation funds will serve as a carrot to reward smart growth plans.

More specifically, the bill will do the following:

• Require the regional governing bodies in each of the state’s major metropolitan areas to adopt, as part of their regional transportation plan, a “sustainable community strategy” that will meet the region’s target for reducing GHG emissions. These strategies will provide alternatives to driving by promoting smart growth principles such as: development near public transit; projects that include a mix of residential and commercial use; and projects that include affordable housing to help reduce new housing developments in outlying areas with cheaper land.
  
• Create incentives for implementing the sustainable community strategies by allocating federal transportation funds only to projects that are consistent with the emissions reductions.
  
• Allow projects that are shown to conform to the sustainable community strategy (and therefore contribute to GHG reduction) to have a more streamlined environmental review process.
  

This is a wonderful step forward towards addressing housing, transportation and CO2 reduction needs as incisively discussed in Terry Nagel's recent op-ed.

With over 20% of residents in Silicon Valley spending fully 50% or more of their income on housing costs - and similar rates throughout many other regions in the Bay Area - the lack of affordable housing have a devastating impact. It also pushes people into homes farther and farther out. The longer commutes compromise family time, increase gas expenses and result in considerable pollution. Putting homes and amenities in the right places will help address the region's growing population the overwhelming majority of which - some 90% - is from families already here.

Economy, clean-tech and jobs

Bailout not withstanding the economy is clearly in recession, probably globally. Auto sales are down 15-30% and soaring job losses - 159,000 non-farm payroll jobs lost nationally in September. It's fair to ask where things are headed with the nascent green economy.

A major bright spot is the continued soaring VC investment in clean-tech.

Venture capital investors continue to look beyond the current financial crisis and see clean-technology innovations as a prime place for their money. The segment posted another record period in the third quarter of 2008, with a total of $2.6 billion worth of investments globally.

In fact, a report to be released today by the Cleantech Group reveals that investments in companies working in solar, the smart electrical grid, algae for fuel and other categories so far this year already have topped all of what was invested in 2007. That's $6.6 billion in the first nine months of 2008 compared with $6 billion in all of 2007.

Nearly $419 million in the third quarter (and more than $1 billion so far in 2008) went to companies based in Silicon Valley, the research and financial services company said.

Not all of course is rosy. The credit crunch is having material impact. Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were/are major players in renewable energy financing and that will force reassessment or adjustment of some projects. Greater ROI will be a likely demand as will industry consolidation. But these dynamics are affecting not only the renewable energy industry. Similar dynamics should be expected for sustainability initiatives in other sectors as some of the 'lightweight' greening initiatives fall away and longer-term efforts may be more challenging.

However the continued investment is being driven by a sense of inevitability of peak oil impacts and carbon caps fueling continued optimism about opportunities within clean tech. Environmental Defense Fund just released a new report on California green jobs. The report profiles the many types of jobs and training programs in the state. This comes at the heels of a state report on the economic benefits of AB32, the Global Warming Solutions Act.

By 2020, AB 32 will increase state gross product by $4 billion and economic production by $27 billion compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Per capita income will grow by $200, and more than 100,000 jobs will be added to the economy.

Of course, there remains a lot of fear of increased costs. Further reassurance is needed. But as noted in still another California report, from the Labor Department, Clean Technology and the Green Economy:

As green products and practices permeate the reaches of the economy, the discussion is no longer about the emergence of a new industry; instead it is about the transformation of the entire economy. This transformation is toward an economy that makes more efficient and sustainable use of our limited natural resources.

The challenges - and opportunities - are not going away. They will in fact become more pronounced even in this downturn.

Cool solar modeling

This is both clever and cool.

Greening Burlingame - 10/6 council and event 10/18

Monday at 6pm the Burlingame city council will be taking up next steps on sustainability and climate action. Mike writes:

The key item for us is the Staff Report (8b): Climate action plan and Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory. The city's consultant will be presenting the recommendations of the Green Ribbon Task Force, primarily seeking council approval to continue with a community GHG inventory and to begin working on a climate action plan. These steps are necessary to meet the commitment of the US Mayor's Climate Protection Agreement. We can't make any systematic reductions in GHG emissions without measuring where we are right now and creating a plan for the next few years.

There are other significant items on the agenda, including discussion of the recommendations of the Safeway working group. I'm also trying to find out about the presentation "Preparing our Community for a Sustainable Future." I don't know who is making this presentation, but it sounds relevant and interesting.

Could be interesting, even if you don't live in Burlingame:

Burlingame Holds Green Event for Homeowners
"Greening your Burlingame Home" Open House

What's the most cost effective way to "go solar"? How can I incorporate green ideas into my home remodel? Where do I begin to make my home more energy efficient?

Burlingame residents can find the answers to these questions and meet with green professionals from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. on Saturday, October 18 at the "Greening Your Burlingame Home" Open House at the Burlingame Recreation Center. The Burlingame Green Ribbon Task Force and the City of Burlingame are holding this event in response to the success of the Burlingame Green Street Fair held earlier this year - and because of the increasing interest of residents in making their homes more sustainable and healthy.

A special emphasis will be on recent developments in new cost - effective solar programs, new technologies in green building and energy efficiency at the Open House. Residents can stay for 15 minutes or all day for this free event and hear presentations from green experts, including:

• "Sustainable Spaces" on easy ways to save energy and water
  
  
• "SolarCity" regarding the latest solar programs available
  
  
• "Harrell Green Remodeling" and "Earthbound Homes" on how to green your remodel or new home construction
  

More green experts will be available to meet with residents and answer questions, such as Emerson Environmental, Horizon Solar Energy Systems and PGE. Meetings will run concurrently during the presentations with the green open house and interactive exhibits in the center's courtyard. There will also be some discounts available on select green services at the event so residents can save money and reduce their carbon footprint.

"Greening Your Burlingame Home Open House"
Burlingame Recreation Center
850 Burlingame Ave., Burlingame, CA 94010
Rooms 1 & 2 + Courtyard
10am-3pm

More on Burlingame's efforts here.

Bailout, election, renewables and the coal kitchen sink

Regardless of how one views the bailout, there was a major piece of good news for the climate (and Silicon Valley clean-tech) - the passage with the bill signed today of the renewable energy incentives long-stalled in Congress.

The renewable energy incentives include an eight-year extension of investment credits for solar energy, as well as breaks for wind, geothermal and other alternative sources. The solar industry says extension of the credits through 2016 would produce an extra 440,000 jobs and more than $230 billion in investments.

Failure to have enacted the renewal - this time for 8 years instead of just 2 - would have been catastrophic for the solar and wind industries which have long struggled with the boom and bust of federal incentives, something which has never plagued the fossil fuel industry with its billions in incentives. These incentives are all the more important now given the disruption of the financial markets which is making financing hard to find. This will likely result in consolidation in the industry - not necessarily a bad thing. The Oil Drum offers a fascinating discussion of the impact of the credit crisis on the energy industry.

However, the bill also contained serious bad news for the climate. The bailout bill was loaded up with a raft of unrelated measures, also contained massive subsidies for the worst fossil fuel options:

• Section 112: Expansion and Modification of Coal Gasification Investment Credit. Scored at $389 million for 2009 and $1.402 billion for FYs 2009-2013.
  
• Section 204: Extension and Modification of Alternative Fuel Credit. Scored at $61 million for FYs 2009-2013. (liquid coal)
  
• Section 209: Extension and Modification of Election to Expense Certain Refineries. Scored at $72 million for 2009 and $2.069 billion for FYs 2009-2013 (liquid fuel from tar and shale oil)
  

These are very bad.

We can hope to challenge these after the election. However, Joe Biden's vigorous promotion of "clean coal" in yesterday's debate (not to mention Obama's in his nomination) are worrisome. An Obama administration is clearly the dramatically better option - but we should anticipate many challenges ahead after January 20th.

Housing and Global Warming

Burlingame council woman Terry Nagel penned a terrific op-ed on the importance of putting housing near the rail corridor and doing so in a way that places more homes on a smaller footprint than the peninsula has traditionally done. And she makes clear the link between number of available homes, housing prices and what housing scarcity and high prices does to people's commute:

Because housing in our county is so expensive, major businesses like Genentech and Oracle are finding that - no surprise - many of their younger workers are choosing to live farther away in areas where homes are more affordable. Cities are already losing workers who used to commute long distances because the drive has become too congested and too expensive.
...
Some cities that are building complexes like these are finding that people abandon their cars willingly when transit options are plentiful and walking becomes a pleasure. For example, the attractive Museum Place complex in Portland, Oregon, which features a two-level Safeway store and seven stories of housing above it, facing an inner courtyard, has more vacant parking spaces in its underground garage than project planners anticipated.

She acknowledges that this is different for people.

Change is scary for people who fear that their own way of life will be impacted. But we’re not talking about altering the single-family neighborhoods of our cities, only distinct transit corridors where more density makes more sense. Inviting more housing options in downtown areas near mass transit offers the opportunity to create vibrant new areas where people want to live. Good design that incorporates green building practices will ensure that these new structures enhance communities in sustainable ways.

Higher-density housing near transit corridors has proven successful in cities like Portland and Seattle and Santa Barbara. It’s a model that has worked well in European cities for centuries. It’s time to begin embracing it here.

It's an excellent piece that's worth a read.